Non aspettiamoci grandi cambiamenti

Quale sarà la prossima ricetta per migliorare lo sviluppo software? Quali nuovi approcci e tecnologie risolveranno tutti i problemi irrisolti?

Abbandonate le speranze, afferma Bob Martin, il tempo dei grandi cambiamenti è trascorso, la nostra disciplina è maturata. Possiamo aspettarci qualche ulteriore miglioramento, ma non più le rivoluzioni del passato.

Progress in software has followed a logarithmic growth curve. In the early years, progress was stark and dramatic. In later years the progress became much more incremental. Now, progress is virtually non-existent.

Look: Assembler was massively better than Binary. Fortran was much better than Assembler. C was a lot better than Fortran. C++ was probably better than C. Java was an improvement over C++. Ruby is probably a bit better than Java.

Waterfall was a whole lot better than nothing. Agile was better than waterfall. Lean was a little better than Agile. Kanban may have been something of an improvement.

Every year. though we apply massive effort, we make less progress than the year before; because every year we get closer and closer to the asymptote.

Ora, aggiunge, è semplicemente ora di mettere in pratica quello che si è imparato. E soprattutto di farlo in modo professionale.

We need to realize that we have hit the asymptote. It’s time to stop the wasteful churning over languages, and frameworks, and paradigms, and processes.

It’s time to simply get down to work.

We need to choose a language, or two, or three. A small set of simple frameworks. Build up our tools. Solidify our processes. And become a goddam profession.

The Churn, di Robert C. Martin.